1) A lasting ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, along with unchanged sanctions (high probability), will lead some risk-averse funds to flow into the crypto market; 2) Tariff costs are mainly absorbed by importers and producers, rather than consumers, and the divergence in PPI and CPI data can reflect this (aside from economic recovery); 3) China's credit cycle may restart, and interest rate cuts will further weaken the dollar, adding fuel to re-inflation in China and Asia (mainly Japan); 4) If the next Federal Reserve chair is not the current popular candidate but a dark horse who is a strong advocate for interest rate cuts, it could be a significant disruptor of the long-term game rules; 5) Liquidity continues to rise, and short-term data cannot disturb the long-term bullish trend; 6) The length of the business cycle is continuously being compressed → because central banks are constantly intervening in the market, the risk of recession is reduced, but the driving logic is shifting more from fundamentals to liquidity and sentiment; 7) Macroeconomics is the foundation, and the dollar is the core material of that foundation. The dollar far exceeds a simple currency attribute; it is the ultimate valve of global liquidity; * The "dollar milkshake theory" during crises acts like a black hole siphoning global funds. The current dollar depreciation cycle plays the role of a "main irrigation channel" in the global market, continuously and widely delivering liquidity to all corners, constantly nourishing risk assets; * Interest rate cuts will open the valve for small-cap stocks' dedicated channel; * Business cycle expansion is directly from the main irrigation channel to a dedicated channel for small-cap stocks.