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Macro is moeilijk. Zullen de tarieven dalen & wanneer & met hoeveel? Hoe gaat het met nieuwbouw / wederverkoopvoorraad? Hoe zien hypotheek-apps eruit?
Als fabrikant van mkt, moet rekening houden met HPI & duurrisico via spread.
iBuying alleen is onderhevig aan de bulldozer.
19 aug, 22:32
Today’s Census print on single-family housing starts was a head-scratcher. Homebuilders we survey (consistent sample size with minimal noise) saw starts per community drop -13% YOY nationally in July, with all regions falling except for the Midwest.
In order for the Census data to be correct on July single-family starts +7% YOY (NSA), builders would need to grow community counts ~+20% YOY, which is very hard to believe and doesn’t match what we're hearing, even from the big builders.
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