有趣的帖子。我仍然認為鏈上指標是有用的(尤其是在與其他條件結合時),但我已經改變了我的心態,減少了對它們的重視,或者至少以不同的方式看待它們。你可以在它們上繪製逐漸減弱的「這次命中」趨勢線,我認為周期以微弱的方式結束而不是轟轟烈烈的方式結束,甚至那些趨勢線都沒有被觸及的情況正在增加。
Gammichan
Gammichan2025年8月30日
Bitcoin's never behaved like this before. Maybe the closest time to this was the 2019-2020 echo bubble. You can kinda argue that was a sideways range. Given it's a fact things are different now, the question becomes do we never see a blow off (new case) or does it just come later (echo case)? I don't really have an answer to that but I think it's important to at least acknowledge behavior that typically has been repeatable like the MVRV Z-score below is factually different than any previous cycle. If you're looking for signals that have always printed every cycle, consider that they simply may not show up at all this time.
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