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Post interessante. Penso ancora che gli indicatori onchain siano utili (soprattutto in congiunzione con altre condizioni), ma ho cambiato mentalità per dare meno peso a questi, o almeno per considerarli in modo diverso. Puoi tracciare linee di tendenza "questo ha colpito" in diminuzione su di essi, e penso che il caso in cui il ciclo si chiuda con un lamento piuttosto che con un botto e anche quelli non vengano colpiti stia aumentando un po'.

30 ago 2025
Bitcoin's never behaved like this before. Maybe the closest time to this was the 2019-2020 echo bubble. You can kinda argue that was a sideways range.
Given it's a fact things are different now, the question becomes do we never see a blow off (new case) or does it just come later (echo case)?
I don't really have an answer to that but I think it's important to at least acknowledge behavior that typically has been repeatable like the MVRV Z-score below is factually different than any previous cycle. If you're looking for signals that have always printed every cycle, consider that they simply may not show up at all this time.

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