Annual Rebalance Kelly Prob(10-yr loss): ≈ 0% Mean 10-yr simple return: ~8.07× Median 10-yr simple return: ~7.06× Mean 10-yr CAGR: ~23.4%/yr Median 10-yr CAGR: ~23.2%/yr Here’s the estimated standard deviation of 10-year simple returns under your model: 100% BTC: ~14.43× (very wide distribution) 70% Kelly rebalance: ~4.64× (much tighter distribution) So the Kelly-style 70/30 allocation cuts the dispersion of outcomes by about two-thirds compared to an all-BTC position.