My best read on what's coming for BTC in the next few weeks based on Treasury refinancing patterns we've been tracking on the dashboard. September has $2.35T in Treasury debt hitting the public markets for refinancing, which puts it right at the edge of what I would class an extreme event. I've been classing them based on size. This only just makes the cut. The pattern I've identified this year shows these high pressure refi months create pretty predictable Bitcoin moves. We typically see a drawdown in the first week of the month when the refinancing pressure peaks, usually hitting around days 4-5. For an event this size, I'm expecting something in the 6-8% range from wherever we start September. This could potentially bring us back to Liquidity Fair Value. What's been interesting is how reliable the recovery has been. Once Treasury gets through the initial auctions and proves they can handle the volume, Creates credit, Bitcoin has bounced back hard every time. For September's $2.35T event, I'm looking for an 11-12% rally from whatever low we hit. Higher beta plays which we should be positioned in should outperform this considerably. My plan is simple, watch for that early September weakness around the 4th-6th, then position for the relief rally that typically plays out over the following 10-15 days. The whole cycle has been running like clockwork this year. The Treasury's massive shift to short-term debt has created these monthly pressure points that I don't think the market has fully adapted to yet. Each month they're rolling over amounts that would have been considered really extreme just a few years ago, but now it's just becoming the new normal and we need to adjust accordingly. The opportunities are there if you know when and where to look... And that place is on the Dashboard. Free 3 day trail still in please for new recruits.