The relay is coming, and when I woke up, the BTC has reached a new high 124474, and the ether is also a recent high of 4783, which is less than 100U away from the historical high, but there seems to be no cheering, and if you look closely, it is probably because the top-ranked copycats are basically still half dead. L2 has risen a lot by relying on the Ethereum narrative, but it is still at the level of oversold rebound for the time being.

I feel like I wake up to new highs of $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB. If I can't see it, I'll sleep more. Go to bed

Currently, Ethereum has reached around 4650, a near-year high, and it looks very energetic, likely to break through the historical high and push towards the psychological barrier of 5000. However, based on historical experience, both the historical high and the psychological barrier of 5000 are not likely to be crossed smoothly. The reason is simple: it's not that there isn't the strength to break through, but rather that the topics and fundamentals available for speculation in the crypto space are limited. Major players will also take advantage of these critical points to create some movements. If it were that easy, wouldn't it waste the precious resources accumulated over the years? Therefore, as we get closer to the previous high, we need to be more cautious, especially when it feels like we're just a step away from crossing it. Key level game logic: 1. The historical high itself is a natural psychological resistance, and many short-term funds will take profits in advance. 2. The round number of 5000 is a stronger psychological expectation level, often accompanied by increased volatility and false breakouts during the assault. 3. If the main force pulls through in one go, it loses the opportunity to create volatility and turnover, so it is more likely to follow the script of "false breakout - pullback - true breakout." Therefore, in this range, we need to pay special attention to trading volume. Historically, when approaching key levels, it is often accompanied by a rapid increase in trading volume, but once the volume does not cooperate, it is easy to fall into the "high pullback" trap.

As the quote says, after the CPI data stabilized tonight, market sentiment gradually calmed down, and the panic caused by the non-farm payrolls has basically been completely diluted. At this time, altcoin whales might make small-scale tests, for example, pulling up 20%-30% first to see if anyone follows along to raise the price. If market sentiment is good and more people join in, they will directly initiate a rally; if fewer people join, the whales are also afraid of losses and will abandon their holdings to wait for the next wave. However, as the interest rate cut points get closer, the opportunity cost of abandoning holdings also increases, as giving up this time may mean missing out next time. With Ethereum entering the ETF camp that was originally dominated by Bitcoin, the title of altcoin leader may be passed on to SOL. The logic is actually simple; a bunch of altcoins without independent narratives or market movements may not differ much, so the biggest one among them is the leader, giving a sense of pulling a general from a bunch of losers.